诺基亚仍然水深火热

本文摘要：Two years ago, Stephen Elop likened Nokia to a burning oil platform, referring to the intense competition from Apples iPhone and Googles Android operating system. There is little in the Finnish handset makers full-year earnings to suggest

Two years ago, Stephen Elop likened Nokia to a burning oil platform, referring to the intense competition from Apples iPhone and Googles Android operating system. There is little in the Finnish handset makers full-year earnings to suggest the CEO has since located the fire extinguisher.两年前，埃洛普(Stephen Elop)将诺基亚(Nokia)比作是正在自燃的石油平台，意指诺基亚面对苹果(Apple)iPhone和谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的白热化竞争。而从这家芬兰手机制造商的全年收益来看，其首席执行长埃洛普在打了那个比方之后没有能寻找适当的灭火器。

One of Nokias self-inflicted problems has been that it dumped its in-house operating system, Symbian, in favor of Microsofts Windows Phone in February 2011, but took 10 months to get a product running on the platform, the Lumia, to market. In a slow-moving business, it might have gotten away with it. But Samsung Electronics was just powering up. Nokias share of global smartphone volumes touched 4% in the third quarter of last year, down from 23% in the first quarter of 2011, notes Strategy Analytics. Samsungs share has almost tripled to 34%.只不过诺基亚曾几次玩火自焚，其中一次是2011年2月退出了内部操作系统塞班(Symbian)，转用微软公司(Microsoft) Windows Phone系统，而将运营于Windows Phone的产品Lumia推向市场就花上了10个月的时间。本来，若是在一个进程较慢的行业里，诺基亚可能会利用Lumia逃过一劫取得成功。但没想到三星电子(Samsung Electronics)那时又卯足了劲。据研究公司Strategy Analytics统计资料，诺基亚智能手机去年第三季度的全球市场份额为4%，近高于2011年第一季度的23%。

三星电子智能手机的市场份额完全减少了两倍，至34%。Nokia is optimistic that Lumia sales will take off. It says that features like its camera and maps set the latest versions of the high-end smartphone launched last November apart and that wireless operators are supportive of a third ecosystem. But despite a fourth-quarter improvement in gross margins and lower operating expenses, Nokia still needs to ship double the number of phones just to break even on smartphones, estimates Barclays.诺基亚对于Lumia销售额将很快快速增长回应悲观。该公司说道，这款去年11月公布的高端智能手机的最新版与众不同的是摄像头和地图等功能，而且无线运营商反对第三个生态系统。但巴克莱(Barclays)估算，尽管诺基亚去年第四季度的毛利减少且营业费用增加，但其智能手机业务要想要超过收支平衡，诺基亚仍须要将手机出货量增加一倍。

There is also a risk of the fire spreading. Nokias regular mobile-phone business, which accounts for more than half of group operating profit, is under pressure from cheaper upstarts based on Android. Sales fell by a fifth last year, while the average selling price of its phones dropped 11% to 31 ($41.30). Last years results were also flattered by a turnaround at its telecom-equipment joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks. But NSNs operating-profit margins are forecast to drop back to around 3% in the first quarter, from 14.4% in the fourth quarter.此外，这股正在自燃的火势还有蔓延到的危险性。诺基亚常规手机业务目前也感受到了那些价格更加低廉的基于安卓的后起之秀带给的压力。诺基亚的营业利润有多达一半来自常规手机业务。

去年，诺基亚常规手机的销量增加了五分之一，而平均值售价上升了11%，至31欧元(41.30美元)。去年的业绩只不过还受到电信设备合资企业诺基亚西门子通信公司(Nokia Siemens Networks)扭亏为盈的“粉饰”。

但预计今年第一季度诺基亚西门子通信的营业利润率将从去年第四季度的14.4%新的降到3%左右。Nokia appears to be through the worst of its cash burn, but it may not be over. Net cash on its balance sheet fell by 1.2 billion to 4.4 billion last year. Nokia has proposed not to pay a dividend this year. But it also expects another 750 million in restructuring related cash outflows, the same as last years dividend payout.诺基亚或许早已挺过了最烧钱的阶段，但整体烧钱趋势有可能还没有完结。该公司资产负债表上的现金净额去年增加了12亿欧元，至44亿欧元。

诺基亚已建议今年不缴纳股息。但它预计在重组现金流入方面将再行花费7.5亿欧元，与去年股息缴纳额非常。The shares have more than halved since Mr. Elop joined in September 2010, and the company now has an enterprise value equivalent to 25 times forecast 2014 operating profit, based on Barclays estimates. Investors may be overestimating Mr. Elops fire-fighting skills.自2010年9月埃洛普重新加入诺基亚以来，该公司股票已暴跌了一半有余。据巴克莱估算，基于2014年预期营业利润计算出来的诺基亚预期市盈率为25倍。

投资者有可能低估了埃洛普的救火能力。

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